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Showing posts from September, 2021

Simple Time Series Models as primitive forecast methods

Let's start with what is Time Series data. According to the famous book of Rob J Hyndman "Forecasting: Principles & Practice" it is a sequences of observations collected over time. One of the characteristic of Time series is that there is successive order for values in opposite to vector where a unique ID doesn't necessarily provide a specific order to the data. Forecasting however is estimating how the sequence of observations will continue into the future according to the book of Hyndman. As we can imagine we can find Time Series data in various sector of business life and managing people would like to know what we can expect in the nearest future. It is crucial because by knowing in advance that something is coming we can prepare better and omit some losses.  R program has develop Time Series forecasting pretty well. We can build advanced ARIMA models as well as Exponential Smoothing or even Neutral network models and more. Today I would like to focus on some b...